NCBA Bank has forecasted a 4.8 percent GDP growth for Kenya in 2024, attributing the optimistic outlook to lower inflation and a favorable external environment.
This projection aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) anticipated 3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2024, rising to 3.3 percent in 2025.
NCBA Group Managing Director John Gachora highlighted Kenya’s recent economic resilience, including decisive measures to address the maturing June 2024 Eurobond, which helped stabilize sovereign spreads and the currency crisis.
Gachora noted that, “Kenya acted decisively to resolve its exceptional financing needs for the Eurobond maturity, significantly easing sovereign spreads.”
Agriculture and agro-processing are expected to bolster growth, supported by favorable weather conditions boosting exports and helping curb food inflation.
The services sector is projected to maintain steady growth, with most sub-sectors reaching near long-term averages.
However, NCBA cautioned about challenges that could affect growth, notably Kenya’s rising public debt. Interest payments are projected to consume 38 percent of tax revenue in 2024/25, slightly reducing to 35 percent in 2025/26.
Additionally, high pending bills—totaling Sh516 billion nationally and Sh182 billion at the county level—are impacting liquidity and private sector stability.
Elevated tax burdens on businesses also remain a concern, with unpredictable obligations affecting cash flow.
